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Benjamin Tal: Unusually Uncertain Times

Updated Friday, September 30, 2011
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Unusually Uncertain Times

Last week I attended my annual conference with Neighbourhood Dominion Lending Centres and we had an outstanding array of industry experts for 2+ days.  The summary below from Dr. Tal, of CIBC World Markets is a must read. I have summarized 1.5 hours of great information as much as I can. Please take the time to read it.

Benjamin Tal, Managing Director and Deputy Chief Economist with CIBC World markets. He was recently described, as one of Canada's leading experts on the real estate market by the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Tal is a regular commentator on financial and economic trends in the Canadian and American print and electronic media.

Less than 24 hours before speaking to us, Mr.Tal was in a meeting with the Bank of Canada for 2.5 hours!  He described the meeting as, one where they don't know what to do! So, what do you do, when you don't know what to do?

He said, Do not take chances, therefore expect an extremely conservative monetary policy the next 12-24 months

-Below are a number of key points he touched on:
-Our low rates are like a cat with 9 lives, Bad things globally has kept rates low.
-This is not the same as 2008, Banks led the problems then, today it is recessionary pressures.
-No real change in the U.S. housing market.
-Greece will default, the EU countries are buying time to shore up their banks financial positions.
-Canada does not have a housing bubble.
-If you have a variable rate mortgage, accelerate your payments against future rate hikes.
-Interest rates staying low for 12-24 months.
-U.S. unemployment numbers will stay high.
-The U.S. has few options to bailout their economy.
-We are trying to correct 25 years of global financial mismanagement in 2 years and it can not be done.
-The European forecast is extremely volatile and the worst is yet to come for them, therefore will help in keeping our rates low.

 


Comments ( 2 )

Kierra posted the following response Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Never seen a better post!
Mateen posted the following response Monday, December 5, 2011

Wow, that's a really clever way of thinking about it!

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